This is the page where I will do daily analasis of the markets starting on April 4 2009!
Choppy Action
Below
Sugar
Analysis of the Nasdaq
Below is a chart of the Nasdaq. As you you can see we have fallen below resistance. The other major indices all rallied back above their former highs, but not the Nasdaq.
I discovered how to show you charts!
Sorry if the chart is small! As you can see, on friday the 8 (may) we smashed through some major resisstance. Some interesting things could occur however, so don't go long quite yet. P.S. this is a 6-month of the S&P.
May 8, 2009 premarket.
Hello everyone! Well yesterday the markets fell substantially. However some support has been found. So if we are up today then the market will resume its upward movement. If we are down tommorow then we will go into freefall.
Postmarket, wednesday, April 29, 2009. Well the markets way up today. It's hard to tell what will happen next, but one thing is for sure, whatever the market does, it will be a big move. Baidu was up 2.7% today! That is a total move of $10 on a $217 stock, and I think that more will come!
Premarket, wednesday, april 29, 2009. I think that the market will probably have a big move today in one direction or another. Soon I will purchase several more stocks for the dummy portfolio.
Baidu down today, however since its inception over the weekend our dummy portfolio is still up .55% so that is good!
Hello! It is April 27, 2009 6.06 P.M. Eastern Standard time. Well I feel that we have made a badly formed double top, then had a doji candle signaling indicision. Typically after a doji candle there is a major move in one direction or another. However on top of the doji there was a big gap down in the morning alowing us to close lower. I would go short with a limited risk option strategy, such as a verical.
Biadu is up 3.3% today! I got back in with an options spread called a vertical. Our dummy portfolio is now worth $100,109.98 or one hundred thousand, one hundred and nine dollars, and 98 cents. We were up $109.98. As a result of both this and Baidu's phenomenal earnings report we will buy 10 more shares, wich are worth $2,248.6. So we now have $94, 751.94 in cash.
April 27 2009, 6:29 A.M. Eastern Time. Hello! Well I am entering some low-risk,bearish option spreads, and getting rid of my Biadu shares. Why? Well it's because the market seems to have entered a double top, and even if it turns out not to be a double top, it has run up into strong resistance, so it could just end up a daytrade. However if we are up tommorow then that will be a strong breakout, and one worth trading! P.S. The dummy portfolio dumped its Biadu shares as well, and is waiting for confirmation to go short, or its equivilant in options, on the market.
This is the first dummy portfolio: It has $100,00 United States Dollars in cash. Now it has $97,000 in cash because we purchased $3,000 of Biadu Corp, or about 15 shares. The current value for one share is $217.00 so our stop loss is at $195.00
P.S. below is a picture of what may happen in the markets.
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April 24, 2009, 6:34 A.M. Eastern Time. Hi! I am currently in 99% cash, waiting for a decisive move in the makets. Here is some important news: The British economy shrank almost 2% this quarter. Samsung is claiming that profits were down this quarter. The South Korean stimulus seems to be working ( I don't know much about it, so I don't have an opinion). Oil prices flirting with the fifty mark, but staying below while the odds of eventual recovery are evaluated. The Euro has gained so far today.
sources: Yahoo! Finance, The Dismal Scientist.
April 23, 2009, 6:34 A.M. Eastern time. Hello! Sorry I have not been able to post! I am betting that we will probably see a nice downleg in the markets. Why? Well this is a beautiful set up: Rising Wedge, huge downward movement, 50% pullback, red/black doji candle. All of this adds up to a great shorting set up!
April 20, 2009, 4:58 P.M. Eastern Time. Nothing new. The markets will probably fall to around the 750 level.
April 19, 2009, 5:55 A.M. , Eastern Time. Hi this is my weekend edition of the daily review. Well I don't know if anyone has noticed but there has been a rising wedge in the markets (bearish). It happens to coincide with us running up into some resistance, so with those two factors together then we will probably fall, however if we are up tommorow then that is very bullish.
April 9, 2009, 4:19, Eastern time. Big run up in the markets today!!! Question is what will they do tommorow? Well the S&P just blasted through some MAJOR resistance. That resistance now becomes support. So where is the next level of resistance? Well the nearest real resistance should be around the 877 level, if we can get up above there that would be VERY bullish. With this new break of support we will not go down tommorow, but we probably won't have a dramatic up move either. Thanks for reading!
April 10, 2009, 6:35, Eastern time. Well, I said pretty much what I wanted to say about the matkets last night. So here are some stocks to watch: DNA, nice run up, but faltering, the studies are begining to turn against it! AAPL: All the factors are for Apple, if they fall over the next week then I will be shocked. Watch Apple closely, because if they cannot rise in such favorable condidtions, it would impact the whole industry.
April 7 2009, 5:01 P.M. Eastern Time. Hi! Well the markets moved interestingly today. I should have known we would fall today. It was so obvious! I forgot to check the 2 day chart. Had I checked the 2 day chart I would have realized that we had just run up into MAJOR resistance! But what does this mean for tommorow? Well I checked the 2 day this time and we just fell into support on the: 1 day, 2 day, 1 week, 1 month daily, 3 month daily, 6 month daily and 1 year daily,all of these increasing in strength. So, I think it's pretty safe to say that we won't fall anymore tommorow. If we do fall tommorow, SHORT LIKE CRAZY!!!!! However the odds of us falling tommorow, as I mentioned, are tiny. Have a nice day!!!
April 7 2009, 7:05 A.M. Eastern Time. Hello! Well this is going to be an interesting day in the markets. We have positive intraday and overall factors. We'll probably see a move upward in the morning , then sideways or a little bit upward action the rest of the day, or we get a huge day up, the morning will be the same as in the first senario, but in the second half of the session we continue to move upward. Buy relative strength stocks with good charts, and these daytrades could well turn into swing trades!
April 6 2009, 4:21 P.M. Eastern Time. Hello, this is the postmarket analyasis. So, I was wrong. This was because I underestimated the power of the negative intraday factors. If you look at a chart you can see that in the second half of the day we were way up. I expected the market to bottom around 11:30 A.M. Eastern time. If the market was close to say six P.M. Eastern Time (ET) I think we would have had an up day. The market will probably finish the move intraday tommorow. Overall I expect an up day tommorow. Thier has been little reduction in support, so thier is little reason to think that tommorow will be down, unless the market takes a rest. If the market is down tommorow most likely it is a pullback.
Hello! Here is the April 6 Pre-Market Analyasis. On the 1 Month Daily Nasdaq: Extremly strong support, both in trendlines and in price levels. In the 3 month Nasdaq daily even stronger support in the same places. Finnaly on the 5 day 30 min Nasdaq Chart I see very strong support. On the 5 day 30 min S&P chart we are seeing an almost identical story. I am finding that the two are also Identical on the one month daily. The only difference is that the S&P has a little more resistance on the 3 month daily than the Nasdaq.
Hello traders! Markets were slightly up today! We'll probably move down intraday on monday. Why? Well when we had that nice upward action in the last 20 minutes of trading in the U.S. Markets we hit some major intraday resistance. For all you daytraders out there, exellent opportunity for a half-hour short! Just always remember to close any positions that move against you! However if we are up intraday, that would be extremly bullish! By the way, check out Prophet.Net, It's great even with only a basic account! Also check out Free Trading Videos .com
Hi! You know someone in the blog calling themself Igor mentioned a very important thing about cutting losses. Igor feels that it is good to cut losses, but you can't cut them too quickly because of commisions and bid/offer spreads! Nice catch Igor! However also remember that it is very important not to be penny wise, and preformance foolish! I would rather lose $10 in commisions than lose $100 holding on to a failing stock, and for the record, you could lose a lot more!
Hi! Well here is my analasis of the markets! This is on a 10 day, 2 hour S&P candle chart (I always use candle charts). Ok my first trendline begins at the 772.99 level acts as support enough to catch the S&P on: Monday and Wednesday. It ends at roughly the 799 level. Second trendline: starts at: 823.15, acts as resistance on tuesday, wednesday, and thursday last week, and thursday this week, it ends at about the 849 level and could act as major resistence next week. I have many other trendlines on the S&P but these are the most important ones, go on Prophet.Net, bet a basic account and draw some of your own trendllines! I have a paragraph on trendlines in the "The Strategy" section.
Try screening for relative strength stocks! Many relative strength stocks will be like a bluechip stock in the 90's: you make a zillion dollars holing it, then when a danger signal goes off you make a zillion more shorting it. This is because the only reason the stock went up was because it was overbought, i.e. when it is no longer overbought, or we see a danger signal on the charts it will very abruptly head south.
The NYSE Short Term Trade Index ($TRIN or <TRIN, both indicate an index, some sites use $ some use<) is going down! Powerful resistance, coupled with powerful decending support will cause it to channel downwardly, this is not a bull flag, because it was going down before. Day traders: Unleash the shorts!
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was way down! Good. This is a form of confirmation. It tells you that this is not just a joke the market is pulling on you, but an actual move with force behind it. If the markets are up big, but the VIX is only slightly down, SHORT!!!!! However in a situation like this we use the VIX for confirmation.
The Nasdaq will most likely be down on monday simply because we ran strait into some powerful resistance, and just above that is another equally, and possibly even more powerful resistance line! However thier is support a few points away.
On the S&P 5 day 30 min. the studies are showing some very interesting things: Parobolic SAR Bearish, MACD Bearish, RSI, Up, but nearing major resistance, but if we break that resistance we get into the ovverbought level so, anyway this is why it's very important to look at major studies, they really help you out!
I think I found a powerful trendline on the S&P. Start: 828 at the open, Finish: 834 at the close. It acted as support in the second to last half hour. It will probably act as major support in the future.